Is This Election Really a Nail-Biter?

 

I’ve been asked why I don’t think this election will be quite the nail-biter being hyped by the media. Part of my answer, of course, is that the nail-biter narrative is being hyped by the media.

It’s usually a New York Times poll that triggers the nail-biting. Each poll is announced with great fanfare, in bold headlines, always with links to commentary that ripple through the rest of the media. The narrative is invariably that the race is deadlocked. Which happens to coincide with the neck-and-neck, both-sides-are-equally-bad, horserace political coverage in which they’re so deeply invested.

To get some return on that investment, they bend objective reality to make Trump appear reasonable and normal, even as he descends deeper and deeper into madness. The Times has shown that it will always, always sane-wash Trump to make the race appear close, even if it isn’t.

It’s not that their polls are wrong. They’re measuring something, after all. It’s just that what they’re measuring is not predictive, and it’s foolish to treat them as if they are.

The Times’ poll is but one of dozens, many of which are significantly more reliable — both for their methodologies and for their honest reading of the data — and many of which are telling a different story from the one the Times wants to tell. Especially in the battleground states.

But the Times poll has the full force of the Times brand behind it. So when the Times says that the race is neck-and-neck, other media outlets — right down to your local news channel — take notice. Before you know it, even Rachel Maddow calls the race neck-and-neck, at least once per show. Obviously, there’s a herd mentality at work — journalists are flocking to whatever “conventional wisdom” the Times is putting out that day.

My point is that I don’t think the polls are saying what we’re being told they’re saying. But don’t take my word for it. If you must put your faith in polls — as I do not — give your nails a break. Look at more than just the latest Times poll, or at the secondary sources that cite it. Look for polls that are known to be high-quality. Look for the averages of multiple polls. Look for the margin of error, because any result within that margin is virtually meaningless. And look at individual swing states, because they are, unfortunately, the only states that matter in the presidential race.

What you’ll find is that Democrats are generally surging, while Republicans are generally sagging. Exactly what your own instincts are telling you. So let’s just say that polls can be misleading, and let’s try not to be swayed by them.

But there are plenty of other reasons my nails remain unbitten, and they have nothing to do with polls. There’s a lot happening right in front of our eyes, things the legacy media is either ignoring or underplaying.

Democratic advertising has gotten intense, and hard to ignore. Democrats have demolished all fundraising records, and they’re using their windfall to carpet-bomb voters in battleground states. Admittedly, I live in one of those, Michigan, so the commercials here are almost omnipresent, especially on local news.

I’ve long thought it almost impossible to get any message through to a diehard Fox viewer, but when I see Democrats buying time even on Fox, I have to rethink that. Fox’s audience is not monolithic, and there are surely plenty of Trump haters, even there.

But Democrats are also buying major sports programming, including the NFL, which is extremely expensive, but where even the most brain-dead MAGA crazy is a captive audience. There’s a range of commercials rotating in and out, covering most of the party’s agenda. All of those commercials do double and triple duty as online ads, which are also everywhere.

Then there’s the billboards being bought on major highways in every battleground state. Billboards are one of the few media that reach people of all political persuasions, but their messages need to be simple enough to be consumed at 70 mph. Happily, abortion messaging couldn’t be simpler: “Trump wants your daughter to have her rapist’s baby.” Or something.

It’s not that all this advertising will change a lot of minds. Anybody who at this point is truly undecided — as opposed to just telling pollsters they’re undecided — is paying no attention at all. They might not even vote, and they’re not worth chasing down.

And since there is no evidence that Trump’s base can be expanded, the election will inevitably come down to what it always comes down to: Democrat turnout.

When Democrats vote, they win, and nothing about that equation has changed. This was vividly demonstrated in 2018, 2020, and 2022. Why, with the same set of threats we faced then — but even worse — would we assume the country is ready to give Trump another shot at killing us?

So driving turnout is the whole point of the advertising. It targets, not just Democrats, but also that sizeable number of Nikki Haley Republicans who will either vote for Harris-Walz or stay home.

And it’s not just about Harris-Walz. Democrats are also funneling serious money to down-ballot races in all 50 states, possibly for the first time. They’re going after seats at the state and local levels, chipping away at the gerrymandered domination of red-state Republicans.

They’re even investing in Florida, where Rick Scott — the Medicare fraudster masquerading as a senator — is facing a strong and charismatic candidate in Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who’ll be getting additional help from an abortion rights amendment that’s also on the ballot, not to mention a category-4 hurricane that’s guaranteed to highlight Republican incompetence.

Want more good news? Voter registration is off the charts, almost across the board. Black, white, women, young, old, educated, and Swifties have all seen spikes in registration, just in the last month. If you’re looking for a key driver, maybe even a predictor, of a robust turnout, then the registration numbers — especially among women and young people — will fill your heart.

But the ultimate good news remains the Democratic track record since the fall of Roe v Wade.

Remember last March, when Marilyn Lands, a Democrat, ran for the Alabama state senate. It was for the same seat she’d lost by 5 points two years earlier. But this time she ran on a platform of abortion rights and IVF, and this time she won by 36 points. In freaking Alabama, where Democrats are an endangered species, she won 63-37.

No, I don’t think Kamala will carry Alabama. But this is one of many examples of Democrats obliterating the conventional wisdom in off-year and special elections. Yes, the media reported Lands’s victory. But they never saw it coming, and they promptly dropped it down the memory hole.

They have likewise underplayed dozens of state and local elections where legislatures were swung, town councils replaced, crazy school boards ejected, and abortion rights enshrined in state constitutions, all by voters who’d had enough of Republican bullshit. The issues were the same ones we face in November.

And these weren’t polls. They were actual elections, where overwhelming turnout carried the day. To me they speak far louder than any poll.

So the good news is all around us — and I haven’t even scratched the surface — but again, you’d never know it from the media.

Not that we’re out of the woods. Not that there isn’t real danger still. Between the structural impediment of the electoral college, the capricious politics of battleground states, and the various ratfucking schemes being hatched by MAGA, there is still plenty of anxiety to go around.

For me, optimism is always cautious, but it’s still optimism. And better than biting my nails.